How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China
How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.04.002
复制
发表时间：
2006-08-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Henderson, J. Vernon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Au, Chun-Chung;Henderson, J. Vernon
中国严格限制农村人口向城市迁移，导致农业劳动力普遍过剩。但移民也受到部门内部的限制。本文认为，这些部门内的限制导致农村工业和城市部门的经济活动聚集不足，导致GDP的一阶损失。对于城市地区，本文根据城市GDP数据估计了城市生产率关系。估计了准入、教育程度、外国直接投资和公共基础设施对生产率的影响。因此，劳动生产率与城市就业率呈倒U型函数关系，如城市理论所预测的那样，随着产业结构从制造业向服务业转移，劳动生产率的峰值向外移动。据我们所知，这是第一篇实际估计任何国家的人均产出与城市规模之间关系的论文。大多数中国城市都被证明是潜在的规模不足-低于95%置信区间的下限，即每个工人的产出峰值。本文计算了农村工业和城市部门增加集聚的巨大收益。(c)2005 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
China strongly restricts rural-urban migration, resulting in a well acknowledged surplus of labor in agriculture. But migration is also restricted within sectors. This paper argues that these intra-sector restrictions lead to insufficient agglomeration of economic activity in both the rural industrial and urban sectors, with resulting first order losses in GDP. For urban areas the paper estimates a city productivity relationship, based on city GDP numbers. The effects of access, educational attainment, FDI, and public infrastructure on productivity are estimated. Given these, worker productivity is shown to be an inverted U-shape function of city employment, with the peak point shifting out as industrial composition moves from manufacturing to services, as predicted by urban theory. As far as we know this is the first paper to actually estimate the relationship between output per worker and city scale for any country. The majority of Chinese cities are shown to be potentially undersized-below the lower bound on the 95% confidence interval about the size where their output per worker peaks. The paper calculates the large gains from increased agglomeration in both the rural industrial and urban sectors. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.