Influence of Twenty-First-Century Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on West African Climate
Influence of Twenty-First-Century Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on West African Climate
复制标题
二十一世纪大气和海面温度强迫对西非气候的影响
DOI：
10.1175/2011jcli4183.1
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
N. Diffenbaugh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Skinner;M. Ashfaq;N. Diffenbaugh
摘要世纪整个西非持续的干旱事件促使人们做出了大量努力来了解驱动非洲气候变率的机制以及对温室气体（GHG）强迫升高的可能反应。一个全球气候模式实验的集合被用来研究未来直接大气辐射强迫和SST强迫在塑造未来西非北部夏季降水潜在变化中的相对作用。作者发现，预计整个萨赫勒西部降水量的增加主要来自直接的大气辐射强迫。大气强迫的变化产生轻微的向北位移和减弱的非洲东风急流（AEJ），加强向西季风流到西非，和加强的热带东风急流（TEJ）。或者，几内亚海岸大部分地区降水量的预计减少是由SST变化引起的。
AbstractThe persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the twentieth century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. An ensemble of global climate model experiments is used to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. The authors find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa, and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST change...