Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report
Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report
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IPCC评估报告中不确定性的处理：第五次评估报告过去的做法和考虑因素
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Mach
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Mastrandrea;K. Mach
自第一次评估报告以来，政府间气候变化专门委员会(气专委)的评估采用了经过校准的不确定性语言和其他方法，目的是清楚地传达评估过程结果的确定性程度。对这些评估中不确定因素的处理一直有反复改进的传统。在这里，我们考虑最近修订向第五次评估报告(AR5)的编写团队提供的不确定性指导的动机。我们首先回顾了政府间气候变化专门委员会评估报告中校准语言的使用历史，以及提供给政府间气候变化专门委员会编写团队的不确定性处理框架。我们的主要重点是解释和应用第四次评估报告中提供给编写小组的指导意见，分析在应用这一指导意见方面取得的成功和面临的挑战，以及在使用经校准的不确定度语言方面采取的方法。我们讨论了AR5指导说明试图改进校准的不确定度指标并使它们的相互关系正式化的方法，以提高工作组各方面对不确定因素的处理的一致性。
The assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since the First Assessment Report, have involved calibrated uncertainty language and other methods aimed towards clear communication of the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process. There has been a continuing tradition of iterative improvement of the treatment of uncertainties in these assessments. Here we consider the motivations for the most recent revision of the uncertainties guidance provided to author teams of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). We first review the history of usage of calibrated language in IPCC Assessment Reports, along with the frameworks for treatment of uncertainties that have been provided to IPCC author teams. Our primary focus is the interpretation and application of the guidance provided to author teams in the Fourth Assessment Report, with analysis of the successes and challenges in the application of this guidance and approaches taken in usage of its calibrated uncertainty language. We discuss the ways in which the AR5 Guidance Note attempts to refine the calibrated uncertainty metrics and formalize their interrelationships to improve the consistency of treatment of uncertainties across the Working Group contributions.