Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus.
Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus.
复制标题
最近全球变暖期间中国的突发干旱日益严重
DOI：
10.1038/srep30571
复制
发表时间：
2016-08-11
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Li Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang L;Yuan X;Xie Z;Wu P;Li Y
1997/1998年大规模厄尔尼诺事件之后，最近全球变暖减缓或中断，提出了陆地水文循环是否正在减速以及水文极端情况如何对中断作出反应的问题。然而，全球范围内频繁发生的“暴旱”现象，伴随着极端高温、低土壤湿度和高蒸散量，对作物产量和水资源供应造成了毁灭性的影响。在这里，我们调查的长期趋势和变化的闪电干旱在中国。暴旱最有可能发生在中国南部和东北等湿润和半湿润地区。1979 - 2010年，中国平均暴旱增加了109%，其主要原因是长期气温升高（50%），其次是土壤水分减少和蒸散增加。1997年以后气温略有下降，但闪电干旱的增加趋势是原来的三倍。进一步的结果表明，温度的下降是由土壤水分和增强ET加速干燥的趋势，导致加速的快速干旱在变暖的间隙。未来几十年的人为变暖可能会加剧中国未来的突发干旱状况。
The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as “flash droughts” accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China.