Estimation of Pregnant Women Possibly Left Behind in Tsunami Predicted Areas of Nagoya City: A Simulation for Rescue Planning
Estimation of Pregnant Women Possibly Left Behind in Tsunami Predicted Areas of Nagoya City: A Simulation for Rescue Planning
复制标题
名古屋市海啸预测地区可能遗留的孕妇估计：救援计划模拟
DOI：
10.1017/dmp.2019.164
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
K. Hattori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ritsuko Hattori;Shoko Miyagawa;K. Hattori
摘要目的：如果发生南海海槽大地震，预计海啸将在100分钟内侵入名古屋市，袭击约三分之一的名古屋市。如果城市的行政计划和助产士的专业知识得到协调，孕妇的生存机会将增加。作者进行了这项模拟研究，试图提高这两个努力的一致性。方法：我们使用机器学习模型估计了孕妇的数量。根据道路中心线数据估算孕妇疏散距离。结果如下：通过这次模拟研究，很明显，需要为大约2600名孕妇逃离海啸预测区域和大约1200名孕妇可能留在该地区做好准备。结论：我们的研究表明，分诊点规划是必要的，在孕妇疏散的地区。这种分类可以将妇女送往适当的医院。
ABSTRACT Objective: In case of an outbreak of Nankai Trough Mega-earthquake, it is predicted that a tsunami would invade Nagoya City within 100 minutes, hitting about one third of the City of Nagoya. If the administrative plan of the city and midwives’ expertise are coordinated, pregnant women’s chances of survival will increase. The authors carried out this simulation study in an attempt to improve consistency of the two efforts. Method: We estimated the number of pregnant women using a machine learning model. The evacuation distance of pregnant women was estimated on the basis of the data of road center line. Results: Through this simulation study, it became clear that preparation for approximately 2600 pregnant women escaping from tsunami predicted area and for about 1200 pregnant women possibly left in the area is needed. Conclusions: Our study suggests that triage point planning is needed in areas where pregnant women are evacuated. The triage makes it possible to transport women to appropriate hospitals.