Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World
Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World
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发展中国家的石油财富与政权生存
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Smith
全球石油市场及其相关的繁荣和萧条催生了大量政治学文献。这本文献中的一个论点是，政治不稳定几乎肯定是石油财富的长期结果。另一种观点恰恰相反，即石油通过资助庇护和专制机构而使威权政权变得更强大。在这篇文章中，我对这些观点进行了第一次跨国测试，并调查了石油财富和石油繁荣与萧条对政治稳定的影响。根据1960年至1999年107个发展中国家的数据，我估计了石油财富对政权失败、反政府社会抗议和国内武装冲突的影响。因此，作为第一个目标，本文解决了以前研究中的一个分析缺陷，将政权的存续与经济政策和政权类型(民主或威权)分开，并侧重于石油财富对几种政治稳定指标的直接影响。我通过将石油出口国与其他发展中国家进行比较，以及通过比较盛产石油的国家在前繁荣、繁荣和萧条时期的表现，来阐述石油财富与这些结果之间的关系。结果表明，石油财富与更持久的政权密切相关，与较低水平的抗议和内战显著相关。此外，
The global oil market and its associated booms and busts have generated a large literature in political science. One contention in this literature is that political instability is a near-certain, long-term outcome of oil wealth. Another line of argument maintains just the opposite, that oil makes authoritarian regimes stronger by funding patronage and repressive apparatuses. In this article, I conduct the first cross-national tests of these arguments and investigate the effects of oil wealth and the oil booms and busts on political stability. Drawing on data from 107 developing countries between 1960 and 1999, I estimate the effects of oil wealth on regime failure, antistate social protest, and domestic armed conflict. Thus, as a first goal this article addresses an analytic shortcoming in previous studies by separating regime survival empirically from both economic policy and regime type (democratic or authoritarian) and by focusing on the direct effects of oil wealth on several measures of political stability. I address the relationship between oil wealth and these outcomes both by comparing exporters to the rest of the developing world and by comparing oil-rich states across pre-boom, boom, and bust periods. The results indicate that oil wealth is robustly associated with more durable regimes and significantly related to lower levels of protest and civil war. Moreover,