Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges
Modeling the Arctic freshwater system and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges
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DOI：
10.1002/2015jg003120
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发表时间：
2016-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Lique;M. Holland;Y. Dibike;D. Lawrence;J. Screen
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文献类型：
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作者：
C. Lique;M. Holland;Y. Dibike;D. Lawrence;J. Screen
北极淡水系统的许多组成部分（大气、海洋、冰冻圈和陆地水文）在过去几十年中经历了巨大的变化，预计这些变化在未来将进一步扩大。在极地地区，观测在时间和空间上都特别稀少。因此，建模系统已被广泛使用，是了解北极淡水系统功能及其与全球地球系统和气候整合的有力工具。在这里，我们提出了一个审查的建模研究解决北极淡水系统的某些方面。通过说明性的例子，我们指出的价值，使用层次结构的模型与日益增加的复杂性和组件的相互作用，以拆除重要的过程中发挥的变异性和变化的不同组成部分的北极淡水系统和它们之间的相互作用。我们讨论了北极淡水系统过去和预测的变化，并探讨了与这些模型结果相关的不确定性来源。我们进一步阐述了未来几代地球系统模型中应包括的一些缺失过程，并强调了更好地量化和了解自然变异性等因素的重要性，以改善对北极淡水系统变化的预测。
Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, in both time and space, in the polar regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, among other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.