Using Existing Argo Trajectories to Statistically Predict Future Float Positions with a Transition Matrix
Using Existing Argo Trajectories to Statistically Predict Future Float Positions with a Transition Matrix
复制标题
使用现有的 Argo 轨迹通过转移矩阵统计预测未来的浮标位置
DOI：
10.1175/jtech-d-22-0070.1
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Robbins, Pelle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chamberlain, Paul;Talley, Lynne D.;Mazloff, Matthew;van Sebille, Erik;Gille, Sarah T.;Tucker, Tyler;Scanderbeg, Megan;Robbins, Pelle
Argo阵列每10天提供近4000个海洋顶部2000米的温度和盐度剖面。尽管如此，Argo浮标不可能随时随地测量海洋。优化后的Argo浮子分布应该与他们观察到的许多具有重要社会意义的海洋特征的时空变化相匹配。确定这些分布是具有挑战性的，因为浮子平流很难预测。在没有外部模型的情况下，基于现有Argo轨迹的过渡矩阵提供了关于Argo浮子运动的统计推断。我们使用24年的Argo位置来构建一个最优的过渡矩阵，以最小化估计偏差和不确定性。确定最佳阵列具有2°× 2°的空间分辨率，时间步长为90天。然后，我们使用过渡矩阵来预测核心Argo阵列、全球生物地球化学阵列和南大洋碳和气候观测与建模（SOCCOM）阵列未来漂浮位置的概率。用Argos系统和铱星通信方法对浮子的过渡矩阵进行比较，可以看出地表位移的影响，在赤道附近最为明显。此外，我们还通过比较Argo浮标得出的矩阵与南大洋状态评估（SOSE）中颗粒释放实验得出的矩阵，证明了过渡矩阵在验证模型中的实用性。
The Argo array provides nearly 4000 temperature and salinity profiles of the top 2000 m of the ocean every 10 days. Still, Argo floats will never be able to measure the ocean at all times, everywhere. Optimized Argo float distributions should match the spatial and temporal variability of the many societally important ocean features that they observe. Determining these distributions is challenging because float advection is difficult to predict. Using no external models, transition matrices based on existing Argo trajectories provide statistical inferences about Argo float motion. We use the 24 years of Argo locations to construct an optimal transition matrix that minimizes estimation bias and uncertainty. The optimal array is determined to have a 2° × 2° spatial resolution with a 90-day time step. We then use the transition matrix to predict the probability of future float locations of the core Argo array, the Global Biogeochemical Array, and the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) array. A comparison of transition matrices derived from floats using Argos system and Iridium communication methods shows the impact of surface displacements, which is most apparent near the equator. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of transition matrices for validating models by comparing the matrix derived from Argo floats with that derived from a particle release experiment in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE).