The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks.
The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41567-021-01187-2
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发表时间：
2021-05
期刊：
影响因子：
19.6
通讯作者：
Ahn YY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kojaku S;Hébert-Dufresne L;Mones E;Lehmann S;Ahn YY
流行病的有效控制依赖于感染者的快速发现和隔离。由于许多传染病是通过相互作用传播的，接触者追踪被广泛用于促进病例发现和控制。然而，决定接触者追踪效果的因素尚未完全明确。在这里，我们发现，与“前向”追踪（追踪疾病传播到谁）相比，“后向”追踪（追踪疾病从谁传播）要有效得多。向后追踪的有效性是由于接触的异质性所产生的简单但被忽视的偏差。我们认为，即使感染的方向未知，也可以进行后向接触者追踪。通过对合成和高分辨率经验接触数据集的模拟，我们表明，战略性执行的接触者追踪可以比单独的病例隔离更有效地阻止大部分传播（就每次隔离所预防的病例而言）。我们的结果要求修改当前的接触者追踪策略，以便它们利用所有形式的偏见。尤其重要的是，我们在数字环境中纳入向后和深度追踪，同时遵守这些新平台的隐私保护要求。
Effective control of an epidemic relies on the rapid discovery and isolation of infected individuals. Because many infectious diseases spread through interaction, contact tracing is widely used to facilitate case discovery and control. However, what determines the efficacy of contact tracing has not been fully understood. Here we reveal that, compared with ‘forward’ tracing (tracing to whom disease spreads), ‘backward’ tracing (tracing from whom disease spreads) is profoundly more effective. The effectiveness of backward tracing is due to simple but overlooked biases arising from the heterogeneity in contacts. We argue that, even if the directionality of infection is unknown, it is possible to perform backward-aiming contact tracing. Using simulations on both synthetic and high-resolution empirical contact datasets, we show that strategically executed contact tracing can prevent a substantial fraction of transmissions with a higher efficiency—in terms of prevented cases per isolation—than case isolation alone. Our results call for a revision of current contact-tracing strategies so that they leverage all forms of bias. It is particularly crucial that we incorporate backward and deep tracing in a digital context while adhering to the privacy-preserving requirements of these new platforms.
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