Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States
Effect of changes in climate and emissions on future sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosol levels in the United States
复制标题
气候和排放变化对美国未来硫酸盐-硝酸盐-铵气溶胶水平的影响
DOI：
10.1029/2008jd010701
复制
发表时间：
2009-01-09
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Seinfeld, J. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pye, H. O. T.;Liao, H.;Seinfeld, J. H.
利用化学输运模式GEOS-Chem对当今和2050年的硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵态气溶胶进行了全球模拟。IPCC A1B情景预测的气候变化和排放是分开或一起施加的，主要集中在美国未来的无机气溶胶水平上。据预测，仅气候变化就会导致美国东南部硫酸盐和铵的含量下降，而中西部和东北部的硝酸盐浓度则会上升。仅气候变化就会导致美国各地硝酸盐浓度下降。在美国，仅气候变化就能导致年平均硫酸盐-硝酸盐-铵的变化高达0.61 μ g/m(3)，而季节变化的幅度往往要大得多。当考虑到人为排放的变化时（无论有无气候变化），预计由于二氧化硫排放的减少，国内硫酸盐浓度将下降，而硝酸盐浓度预计将普遍增加，这是由于氨排放的增加以及尽管氮氧化物排放减少，但硫酸盐的减少。由于未来全球氨和硫酸盐排放量的增加，预计铵负担将从0.24 Tg增加到0.36 Tg，硫酸盐负担将从0.28 Tg增加到0.40 Tg。由于前体排放量增加和温度升高的相互影响，排放和气候都会发生变化，预计全球硝酸盐负荷将基本保持在0.35 Tg不变。
Global simulations of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium aerosols are performed for the present day and 2050 using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together, with the primary focus of the work on future inorganic aerosol levels over the United States. Climate change alone is predicted to lead to decreases in levels of sulfate and ammonium in the southeast U. S. but increases in the Midwest and northeast U. S. Nitrate concentrations are projected to decrease across the U. S. as a result of climate change alone. In the U. S., climate change alone can cause changes in annually averaged sulfate-nitrate-ammonium of up to 0.61 mu g/m(3), with seasonal changes often being much larger in magnitude. When changes in anthropogenic emissions are considered ( with or without changes in climate), domestic sulfate concentrations are projected to decrease because of sulfur dioxide emission reductions, and nitrate concentrations are predicted to generally increase because of higher ammonia emissions combined with decreases in sulfate despite reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides. The ammonium burden is projected to increase from 0.24 to 0.36 Tg, and the sulfate burden to increase from 0.28 to 0.40 Tg S as a result of globally higher ammonia and sulfate emissions in the future. The global nitrate burden is predicted to remain essentially constant at 0.35 Tg, with changes in both emissions and climate as a result of the competing effects of higher precursor emissions and increased temperature.