Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture
Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture
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DOI：
10.1002/sim.7363
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发表时间：
2017-09-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Bracher, Johannes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Held, Leonhard;Meyer, Sebastian;Bracher, Johannes
对应报告的传染病进行例行监测，每天或每周对报告的病例进行计数，并按区域和年龄组分层。从公共卫生的角度来看，传染病传播的预测至关重要。我们认为，这种预测需要适当地纳入所附的不确定性，所以他们应该是概率的性质。然而，预测还需要考虑到传染病固有的时间依赖性、人类旅行的空间动态以及各年龄组之间的社会接触模式。我们描述了一个多变量时间序列模型，用于柏林12个城区6个年龄组2011/27周至2015/26周诺如病毒胃肠炎的每周监测计数。第二年（2015/27至2016/26）用于评估预测的质量。总病例数的概率预测可以通过蒙特卡罗模拟得出，但一阶矩和二阶矩也可以通过分析得到。最终规模的预测，以及按年龄组，按地区和按周的病例总数的多变量预测进行比较，在不同的模型的复杂性不同。这导致对公共卫生监测数据的建模、预测和评价问题进行更广泛的讨论。版权所有（c）2017约翰威利父子有限公司
Routine surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to daily or weekly counts of reported cases stratified by region and age group. From a public health perspective, forecasts of infectious disease spread are of central importance. We argue that such forecasts need to properly incorporate the attached uncertainty, so they should be probabilistic in nature. However, forecasts also need to take into account temporal dependencies inherent to communicable diseases, spatial dynamics through human travel and social contact patterns between age groups. We describe a multivariate time series model for weekly surveillance counts on norovirus gastroenteritis from the 12 city districts of Berlin, in six age groups, from week 2011/27 to week 2015/26. The following year (2015/27 to 2016/26) is used to assess the quality of the predictions. Probabilistic forecasts of the total number of cases can be derived through Monte Carlo simulation, but first and second moments are also available analytically. Final size forecasts as well as multivariate forecasts of the total number of cases by age group, by district and by week are compared across different models of varying complexity. This leads to a more general discussion of issues regarding modelling, prediction and evaluation of public health surveillance data. Copyright (c) 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.