Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone
Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone
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DOI：
10.1029/2009jd013577
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发表时间：
2010-02
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Austin;H. Struthers;J. Scinocca;D. Plummer;H. Akiyoshi;A. Baumgaertner;S. Bekki;G. Bodeker;P. Braesicke;C. Brühl;N. Butchart;M. Chipperfield;D. Cugnet;M. Dameris;S. Dhomse;S. Frith;H. Garny;A. Gettelman;S. Hardiman;P. Jöckel;D. Kinnison;A. Kubin;J. Lamarque;U. Langematz;E. Mancini;M. Marchand;M. Michou;O. Morgenstern;Tetsu Nakamura;J. Nielsen;G. Pitari;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;T. Shepherd;K. Shibata;D. Smale;H. Teyssèdre;Y. Yamashita
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文献类型：
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作者：
J. Austin;H. Struthers;J. Scinocca;D. Plummer;H. Akiyoshi;A. Baumgaertner;S. Bekki;G. Bodeker;P. Braesicke;C. Brühl;N. Butchart;M. Chipperfield;D. Cugnet;M. Dameris;S. Dhomse;S. Frith;H. Garny;A. Gettelman;S. Hardiman;P. Jöckel;D. Kinnison;A. Kubin;J. Lamarque;U. Langematz;E. Mancini;M. Marchand;M. Michou;O. Morgenstern;Tetsu Nakamura;J. Nielsen;G. Pitari;J. Pyle;E. Rozanov;T. Shepherd;K. Shibata;D. Smale;H. Teyssèdre;Y. Yamashita
涵盖最近过去并持续整个 21 世纪的耦合化学-气候模型模拟已经通过一系列不同的模型完成。正如《蒙特利尔议定书》（及其修正案）和政府间气候变化专门委员会 A1b 情景中所预期的那样，卤素含量和温室气体浓度采用共同强迫。使用常用的诊断方法对南极臭氧空洞的模拟进行了比较：最小臭氧、低于 220 DU 的最大臭氧面积以及低于 220 DU 的臭氧质量赤字。尽管对造成臭氧消耗的过程已相当了解，但仍获得了广泛的结果。与观测结果的比较表明，模型对臭氧空洞区域预测不足的原因之一是模型倾向于对导致极地平流层云形成的低温区域预测不足高达 35%。模型通常在极地涡旋边缘的物种梯度也太弱，这表明涡旋边缘的空气混合过多。其他模型显示总柱臭氧存在较高偏差，这限制了臭氧空洞的大小（由 220 DU 阈值定义）。对那些与观察结果最吻合的模型的结果进行了更详细的检查。对于一些模型来说，臭氧空洞不会在本世纪消失，但即使在 2070 年之后，大多数春季仍会出现面积达 300 万平方公里的小型臭氧空洞。
Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.