'Mistake overturned, so I call it a lesson learned':1 The Conservatives
'Mistake overturned, so I call it a lesson learned':1 The Conservatives
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“错误被推翻，所以我称之为吸取的教训”：1 保守党
DOI：
10.1093/pa/gsaa022
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Power S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Power S
归根结底，保守党在2019年的胜利最令人惊讶的事情可能是它是多么不令人惊讶。随着英国在12月12日投票，几乎每一项民意调查都让保守党领先至少6个百分点（BBC，2019）。然而，在竞选期间，人们对结果进行了大量的宣传，据说结果很难预测（皮纳尔，2019）。这在一定程度上可能是因为评论员被2015年和2017年的意外结果所惩罚。但这也是因为，在10月初，英国选举研究（BES）表明选民是“现代最不稳定的”（英国选举研究，2019），甚至选举学的教父（事实上，这个词的发明者）大卫巴特勒爵士也表示，他对选举结果“从未感到如此困惑和不确定”（佩恩，2019）。然而，12月13日破晓的黎明给保守党带来了他们中的一些人必须延迟的满足感：这是2017年应该取得的胜利。正如约翰逊在市政厅的前同事Guto Harri所说的那样，区别在于执行：“他和特蕾莎·梅有同样的一副牌，但他打得不一样”（McTague，2019）。
When all is said and done, what might be the most surprising thing about the Conservative Party’s victory in 2019 was how unsurprising it was. As the UK voted on 12 December, almost every poll had the Tories ahead by at least six percentage points (BBC, 2019). And yet much was made during the campaign itself of the result being supposedly hard to call (Pienaar, 2019). This was partly perhaps because commentators were chastened by unexpected results in 2015 and 2017. But it was also because, in early October, the British Election Study (BES) had shown that the electorate was the ‘most volatile in modern times’(British Election Study, 2019), with even the godfather of psephology (indeed, the inventor of the term) Sir David Butler stating that he had ‘never felt more confused and uncertain’about an electoral outcome (Payne, 2019). Yet the dawn which broke on 13 December brought Conservatives what for some of them must have been delayed gratification: this was the victory that 2017 was supposed to have been. The difference, as Johnson’s former colleague from City Hall Guto Harri argued, was in the execution:‘he’s got the same deck of cards as Theresa May, but he’s played them differently’(McTague, 2019).