Re-estimation of China-EU trade balance
Re-estimation of China-EU trade balance
复制标题
中欧贸易差额重新估算
DOI：
10.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.008
复制
发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Chen, Xikang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiang, Xuemei;Kong, Yishu;Chen, Xikang
而中美之间的差异。贸易顺差问题已被学者和政策制定者深入研究，但中欧贸易顺差差异问题在文献中鲜有讨论。这可能导致对中欧贸易关系认识的严重偏差，甚至引发不必要的贸易摩擦。在本文中，我们讨论了中欧贸易差异背后的原因，并量化了运输成本、转口及其加价对差异的影响程度。我们还采用中欧双方的投入产出表，用国内增加值（DVA）和总值来衡量中欧货物和服务贸易差额。经过价格调整和转口调整，2016年中国对欧盟货物和服务贸易差额将由最初估计的906亿美元缩减至总额估计的204亿美元，增值估计进一步缩减至158亿美元。
Significant discrepancy exists between official Chinese and EU trade statistics on the magnitudes of the China-EU trade in goods as well as in services. While the discrepancy of China-U.S. trade surplus has been thoroughly studied by scholars and policymakers, the discrepancy of China-EU trade surplus is barely discussed in literatures. This may lead to seriously bias in understanding China-EU trade relationship, and even cause unnecessary trade friction. In this paper, we discuss the reasons behind the discrepancy of China-EU trade and quantify the extent to which the discrepancy is contributed by transportation costs, re-exports and their markups. We also employ the input-output tables of both EU and China, and measure the China-EU trade balance of goods and services in both domestic value-added (DVA) terms as well as in gross terms. The discrepancy of China-EU trade balance in goods (and services) still exists after adjustments, but is significantly reduced. With the adjustments on price and re-exports, in 2016, the discrepancy of China-EU trade in goods and services of Chinese release over EU release would shrink from an initial estimation of US$90.6 billion to an estimation of US$20.4 billion in gross terms, and further to US$15.8 billion in value-added terms.