Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade
Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate1863
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发表时间：
2013-07-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Asif, Muhammad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guemas, Virginie;Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.;Asif, Muhammad
尽管人为温室气体持续产生，但2000-2010年期间地球平均近地表温度暂停上升（1）。为了解释这种停顿，有人提出，表层海洋层（2，3）以下的海洋热量吸收增加，以过度补偿地球的热量储存。也有人提出，深层长期太阳活动极小期（4）、平流层水蒸气（5）、平流层（6）和对流层气溶胶（7）也有贡献。然而，到目前为止，这种变暖放缓的有力归因还没有实现。在这里，我们展示了对未来5年这种变暖放缓的成功回顾性预测，对其分析使我们能够将这种放缓的开始归因于海洋热量吸收的增加。只考虑外部辐射强迫的敏感性实验不能再现这种减速。在过去的10年中，大气顶部的净能量输入保持在[0.5-1] W m（-2）区间，这一点被我们的预测成功地捕捉到。在变暖暂停开始时，大部分多余的能量被海洋顶部700米吸收，其中65%在热带太平洋和大西洋。因此，我们的研究结果指出了海洋热量吸收在最近变暖放缓中的关键作用。回顾性预测这种放缓的能力不仅增强了我们对气候模型稳健性的信心，而且还增强了业务性十年气候预测的社会经济相关性。
Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth's mean near-surface temperature paused its rise during the 2000-2010 period(1). To explain such a pause, an increase in ocean heat uptake below the superficial ocean layer(2,3) has been proposed to overcompensate for the Earth's heat storage. Contributions have also been suggested from the deep prolonged solar minimum(4), the stratospheric water vapour(5), the stratospheric(6) and tropospheric aerosols(7). However, a robust attribution of this warming slowdown has not been achievable up to now. Here we show successful retrospective predictions of this warming slowdown up to 5 years ahead, the analysis of which allows us to attribute the onset of this slowdown to an increase in ocean heat uptake. Sensitivity experiments accounting only for the external radiative forcings do not reproduce the slowdown. The top-of-atmosphere net energy input remained in the [0.5-1] W m(-2) interval during the past decade, which is successfully captured by our predictions. Most of this excess energy was absorbed in the top 700 m of the ocean at the onset of the warming pause, 65% of it in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Our results hence point at the key role of the ocean heat uptake in the recent warming slowdown. The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio-economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions.