Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions.
Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions.
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DOI：
10.1097/coh.0b013e32833a51b2
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发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Fraser C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baggaley RF;Fraser C
讨论艾滋病毒性传播的数学模型的作用：使用的方法及其影响。我们使用数学建模的“通用测试和治疗”作为一个案例研究，以说明更广泛的问题有关的所有建模的性传播艾滋病毒。数学模型在HIV流行病学中被广泛用于从一组或多组假设中推导出逻辑结论。简单的模型可以带来广泛的定性理解，而复杂的模型可以对更现实的假设进行编码，从而用于预测或业务目的。应避免过度依赖模型分析，因为假设未经检验，输入参数无法估计。简单的模型提供了大胆的断言，在最近的公共卫生政策提供了令人信服的论据，但可能无法充分反映分析中固有的不确定性。
To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact. We use mathematical modelling of “universal test and treat” as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission. Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, while complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and thus be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis where assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis.