The Biases in Applying Static Demand Models Under Dynamic Demand
The Biases in Applying Static Demand Models Under Dynamic Demand
复制标题
动态需求下应用静态需求模型的偏差
DOI：
10.1007/s11151-024-09946-0
复制
发表时间：
2024
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Takeshi Fukasawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takeshi Fukasawa
本文探讨了以往实证研究中指出的在动态需求下应用静态需求模型时，需求价格弹性偏差的机制。它研究了偏差的三个来源：忽视状态变量（影响短期弹性）;效用参数估计不一致;以及消费者预期的变化（影响长期弹性）。忽视状态变量，如耐用品持有量，这是不可忽略的，但没有太多的关注，在文献中，导致高估的短期自身弹性。不一致的效用参数估计是由于未能考虑消费者的未来预期和不可观测的状态变量。在静态模型中没有明确指定消费者不断变化的期望，这也会导致在应用静态模型时产生有偏见的结果。关于偏差的大小，第一和第三来源的偏差可能会导致价格弹性的大偏差，特别是当重点是大的条件选择概率产品。还讨论了使用静态需求模型的可能补救措施。
This article investigates the mechanisms that underlie the biases in price elasticities of demand in applying static demand models under dynamic demand, which have been pointed out by previous empirical studies. It studies three sources of biases: disregard of state variables (affecting short-run elasticity); inconsistent utility parameter estimates; and changing expectations of consumers (affecting long-run elasticity). Disregard of state variables, such as durable product holdings, which is not negligible but not paid much attention to in the literature, leads to an overestimate of short-run own elasticities. Inconsistent utility parameter estimates arises due to the failure to account for consumers’ future expectations and unobserved state variables. Changing expectations of consumers are not explicitly specified in the static model, and this also leads to biased results when applying static models. Regarding the magnitude of the biases, the first and the third sources of biases might induce large biases in price elasticities, especially when the focus is on the large conditional choice probability products. Possible remedies for the use of static demand models are also discussed.
具有未观察到的选择集异质性的偏好估计调查
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Crawford G
通讯作者：
Crawford G