Non-native fishes and climate change: predicting species responses to warming temperatures in a temperate region
Non-native fishes and climate change: predicting species responses to warming temperatures in a temperate region
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02396.x
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发表时间：
2010-05-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Copp, G. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Britton, J. R.;Cucherousset, J.;Copp, G. H.
1.温带地区的鱼类群落占主导地位的冷水物种（生理最适28摄氏度），能够建立和入侵的热约束的表达，他们的生活史特征减少。2.英格兰和威尔士是一个温带地区，至少有38种淡水鱼被引入，尽管其中14种已经不再存在。在剩下的24个物种中，有些已经存在，但没有建立，有些已经建立了种群，而没有成为入侵者，有些已经成为入侵者。这项研究的目的是预测这24种非本地鱼类对2050年气候变化下英格兰和威尔士气温变暖的反应。气候匹配模型和空气和水温回归模型的预测使用表明，有六个非本地鱼类目前持久的，但没有建立在英格兰和威尔士的建立和随后的入侵将大大受益于预测的升温温度。其中包括普通鲤鱼鲤鱼和欧洲鲶鱼，这些鱼类也通过放养产生相对较高的繁殖压力，以支持钓鱼，其空间分布目前正在显著增加，包括在开放系统中。研究了气温升高、水流空间分布和繁殖体压力等因素的综合作用对红腹锦鸡儿建群和入侵的潜在生态影响。carpio和S.对龟头进行了评估。生态后果C.在英格兰和威尔士，鲤鱼入侵被评估为可能严重，影响可能与栖息地破坏、大型植物损失和水浊度增加有关。然而，S.在其引入范围的其他地方，龟头不太清楚，因此它们在英格兰和威尔士的潜在影响仍然不确定。
1. Temperate regions with fish communities dominated by cold-water species (physiological optima 28 degrees C) that are able to establish and invade as the thermal constraints on the expression of their life history traits diminish.2. England and Wales is a temperate region into which at least 38 freshwater fishes have been introduced, although 14 of these are no longer present. Of the remaining 24 species, some have persisted but failed to establish, some have established populations without becoming invasive and some have become invasive. The aim of the study was to predict the responses of these 24 non-native fishes to the warming temperatures of England and Wales predicted under climate change in 2050.3. The predictive use of climate-matching models and an air and water temperature regression model suggested that there are six non-native fishes currently persistent but not established in England and Wales whose establishment and subsequent invasion would benefit substantially from the predicted warming temperatures. These included the common carp Cyprinus carpio and European catfish Silurus glanis, fishes that also exert a relatively high propagule pressure through stocking to support angling and whose spatial distribution is currently increasing significantly, including in open systems.4. The potential ecological impacts of the combined effects of warming temperatures, current spatial distribution and propagule pressure on the establishment and invasion of C. carpio and S. glanis were assessed. The ecological consequences of C. carpio invasion were assessed as potentially severe in England and Wales, with impacts likely to relate to habitat destruction, macrophyte loss and increased water turbidity. However, evidence of ecological impacts of S. glanis elsewhere in their introduced range was less clear and so their potential impacts in England and Wales remain uncertain.