Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6
Magnitudes and Spatial Patterns of Interdecadal Temperature Variability in CMIP6
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DOI：
10.1029/2019gl086588
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发表时间：
2020-04
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
L. Parsons;M. K. Brennan;Robert C.J. Wills;C. Proistosescu;C. Proistosescu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Parsons;M. K. Brennan;Robert C.J. Wills;C. Proistosescu;C. Proistosescu
全球和区域变暖的归因和预测需要更好地了解内部全球平均地表气温（GMST）变化的幅度和空间特征。我们研究耦合建模相互比较项目，第3，5和6阶段（CMIP3，CMIP5和CMIP6）工业化前控制（piControl），上个千年，历史模拟和观测数据中的年代际GMST变化。我们发现，几个CMIP6模拟显示更多的GMST年代际变化比前几代的模式模拟。尽管如此，我们发现CMIP6 piControl模拟的100年趋势从未超过观测到的最大变暖趋势。此外，年代际GMST变化在非强迫piControl模拟与高纬度地区和东太平洋的区域变化，而年代际GMST变化的仪器数据和历史模拟与外部强迫是全球一致的，并与热带深对流区的变化。
Attribution and prediction of global and regional warming requires a better understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristics of internal global mean surface air temperature (GMST) variability. We examine interdecadal GMST variability in Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Projects, Phases 3, 5, and 6 (CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) preindustrial control (piControl), last millennium, and historical simulations and in observational data. We find that several CMIP6 simulations show more GMST interdecadal variability than the previous generations of model simulations. Nonetheless, we find that 100‐year trends in CMIP6 piControl simulations never exceed the maximum observed warming trend. Furthermore, interdecadal GMST variability in the unforced piControl simulations is associated with regional variability in the high latitudes and the east Pacific, whereas interdecadal GMST variability in instrumental data and in historical simulations with external forcing is more globally coherent and is associated with variability in tropical deep convective regions.