Interacting effects of particulate pollution and cold temperature on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland
Interacting effects of particulate pollution and cold temperature on cardiorespiratory mortality in Scotland
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DOI：
10.1136/oem.2007.032896
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发表时间：
2008-03-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Agius, R. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carder, M.;McNamee, R.;Agius, R. M.
目的：为了确定黑烟对心肺死亡率的影响是否被寒冷的温度所修正，方法：使用泊松回归模型来研究滞后的黑烟浓度和每日死亡率之间的关系，以及黑烟对死亡率的影响是否被1981年1月至2001年12月的苏格兰三个城市的寒冷温度所修正。主要结果：对于全因呼吸和非心肺死亡率，死亡率和滞后黑烟浓度之间存在显著相关性。一般来说，最大的黑烟效应发生在滞后0时，尽管这些估计值在统计学上不显著。在任何一天，每日平均黑烟浓度增加10 μ g（-3），（95% CI 0.72 - 2.65）全因死亡率增加，在随后的30天内，心血管、呼吸和非心肺死亡率分别增加5.36%（95% CI 2.93至7.84）和2.13%（95% CI 0.82至3.47）。黑烟对死亡率的影响在不同季节（凉爽和温暖时期）之间没有显着变化。对于全因，心血管和非心肺死亡率的相互作用方面的列入没有改善模型，虽然全因和非心肺死亡率有一个温度和最近的黑烟exposure.Conclusions之间的相互作用的建议：这项研究的结果表明，黑烟在低温下的死亡率有更大的影响。由于极端寒冷和颗粒污染可能共存，例如在逆温期间，这些结果可能具有重要的公共卫生影响。
Objectives: To determine whether the effect of black smoke on cardiorespiratory mortality is modified by cold temperatures.Methods: Poisson regression models were used to investigate the relationship between lagged black smoke concentration and daily mortality, and whether the effect of black smoke on mortality was modified by cold temperature for three Scottish cities from January 1981 to December 2001.Main results: For all-cause respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory mortality, there was a significant association between mortality and lagged black smoke concentration. Generally the maximum black smoke effect occurred at lag 0, although these estimates were not statistically significant. A 10 mu gm(-3) increase in the daily mean black smoke concentration on any given day was associated with a 1.68% (95% CI 0.72 to 2.65) increase in all-cause mortality and a 0.43% (95% CI 20.97 to 1.86), 5.36% (95% CI 2.93 to 7.84) and 2.13% (95% CI 0.82 to 3.47) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory and non-cardiorespiratory mortality, respectively, over the ensuing 30-day period. The effect of black smoke on mortality did not vary significantly between seasons (cool and warm periods). For all-cause, cardiovascular and non-cardiorespiratory mortality the inclusion of interaction terms did not improve the models, although for all-cause and non-cardiorespiratory mortality there was a suggestion for interaction between temperature and recent black smoke exposure.Conclusions: The results of this study suggested a greater effect of black smoke on mortality at low temperatures. Since extremes of cold and particulate pollution may coexist, for example during temperature inversion, these results may have important public health implications.