Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk
Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1017352108
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发表时间：
2011-07-26
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wilson, Robert J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Maclean, Ilya M. D.;Wilson, Robert J.
气候变化的预测影响包括许多物种的高灭绝风险，但由于缺乏经验支持，对这些预测的信心受到破坏。许多研究已经记录了生态对近期气候变化的反应，为测试近期反应的规模和性质是否与预测相符提供了机会。在此，我们进行了一项全球和多分类元分析，以表明气候变化已实现影响的经验证据支持对未来灭绝风险的预测。我们使用国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录标准作为共同尺度，从广泛的气候影响、生态响应和分析方法中估计灭绝风险，并将预测与观测结果进行比较。到2100年，预测气候变化未来影响的研究的平均灭绝概率为7%，而根据观测到的响应，这一概率为15%。考虑到所分析的气候变化影响类型以及所研究的世界和分类群的部分可能存在的偏差后，两种方法之间的差异较小：预测表明，不同分类群和地区的平均灭绝概率为10%，而经验证据给出的平均概率为14%。除了平均总体灭绝概率外，观测结果还支持灭绝风险变异性的预测，以及与广泛的分类类群和地理区域相关的相对风险。这些结果表明，这些预测对方法学假设是可靠的，并为人为气候变化现在是全球生物多样性的主要威胁的断言提供了强有力的经验支持。
Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.