Decreasing market value of variable renewables can be avoided by policy action
Decreasing market value of variable renewables can be avoided by policy action
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105354
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发表时间：
2021-06-11
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Reichenberg, L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, T.;Reichenberg, L.
尽管最近的研究表明，风能和太阳能占80%以上的电力系统是可以负担得起的，但经济学家对市场一体化表示担忧。来自可变可再生能源的相关发电压低了市场价格，这可能导致风能和太阳能蚕食自己的收入，并阻止它们从市场上收回成本。这种蚕食似乎限制了风能和太阳能的整合，因此与表明高份额具有成本效益的研究相矛盾。在这里，我们从理论和模拟的例子表明，市场激励如何与价格，收入和成本的可再生电力系统。最近的一些文献中看到的平均收入下降是由于一种隐含的政策假设，即技术是被迫进入系统的，无论是补贴还是配额。无论补贴技术是否可变，这种下降在数学上都是有保证的。相反，如果驱动政策是二氧化碳上限或税收，风能和太阳能的股票可以在不侵蚀其自身市场收入的情况下上涨，即使风能和太阳能的渗透率超过80%。市场价值对政策制度的强烈依赖意味着需要谨慎使用市场价值作为市场一体化的衡量标准。市场价值下降不一定是一体化问题的标志，而是政策选择的结果。
Although recent studies have shown that electricity systems with shares of wind and solar above 80% can be affordable, economists have raised concerns about market integration. Correlated generation from variable renewable sources depresses market prices, which can cause wind and solar to cannibalise their own revenues and prevent them from covering their costs from the market. This cannibalisation appears to set limits on the integration of wind and solar, and thus to contradict studies that show that high shares are cost effective. Here we show from theory and with simulation examples how market incentives interact with prices, revenue and costs for renewable electricity systems. The decline in average revenue seen in some recent literature is due to an implicit policy assumption that technologies are forced into the system, whether it be with subsidies or quotas. This decline is mathematically guaranteed regardless of whether the subsidised technology is variable or not. If instead the driving policy is a carbon dioxide cap or tax, wind and solar shares can rise without cannibalising their own market revenue, even at penetrations of wind and solar above 80%. The strong dependence of market value on the policy regime means that market value needs to be used with caution as a measure of market integration. Declining market value is not necessarily a sign of integration problems, but rather a result of policy choices.