Scaling from challenge experiments to the field: Quantifying the impact of vaccination on the transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 8
Scaling from challenge experiments to the field: Quantifying the impact of vaccination on the transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 8
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2012.02.016
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Klinkenberg, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gubbins, S.;Hartemink, N. A.;Klinkenberg, D.
蓝舌病（Bluetongue，BT）是由蓝舌病病毒（Bluetongue virus，BTV）引起的反刍动物的一种重要经济疾病，由库蠓（Culicoides biting midges）传播。保护易感动物免受BTV感染的最实用和有效的方法是接种疫苗。来自Intervet International b. v.在小牛和绵羊中进行的攻毒研究的数据，特别是攻击动物血液中病毒RNA的存在，用于评估疫苗效力。小牛攻毒研究的结果表明，接种疫苗可能会将牛中BTV的基本繁殖数（R-0）降低至1以下（即防止饲养区内的重大疫情），并且这种降低对模型参数的不确定性具有稳健性。敏感性分析表明，是否预测接种疫苗可将R-0降低至1以下取决于以下假设：（i）攻毒研究的“可疑”结果是否被视为阴性或阳性;（ii）接种疫苗是否降低了从宿主向媒介传播的概率;以及（iii）外源性潜伏期是否遵循现实的伽马分布或更常用的指数分布。对于绵羊，除1只接种动物外，所有接种动物均受到保护，因此，接种将使绵羊的R-0持续降低至1以下。使用一个随机的空间模型BTV在英国（GB）的传播，疫苗接种，以减少疾病的发病率和空间传播模拟BTV爆发在GB中，在反应性疫苗接种策略，当发生入侵到以前接种疫苗的人口。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Bluetongue (BT) is an economically important disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The most practical and effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV is by vaccination. Data from challenge studies in calves and sheep conducted by Intervet International b.v., in particular, presence of viral RNA in the blood of challenged animals, were used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The results of the challenge studies for calves indicated that vaccination is likely to reduce the basic reproduction number (R-0) for BTV in cattle to below one (i.e. prevent major outbreaks within a holding) and that this reduction is robust to uncertainty in the model parameters. Sensitivity analysis showed that the whether or not vaccination is predicted to reduce R-0 to below one depended on the following assumptions: (i) whether "doubtful" results from the challenge studies are treated as negative or positive; (ii) whether or not the probability of transmission from host to vector is reduced by vaccination; and (iii) whether the extrinsic incubation period follows a realistic gamma distribution or the more commonly used exponential distribution. For sheep, all but one of the vaccinated animals were protected and, consequently, vaccination will consistently reduce R-0 in sheep to below one. Using a stochastic spatial model for the spread of BTV in Great Britain (GB), vaccination was predicted to reduce both the incidence of disease and spatial spread in simulated BTV outbreaks in GB, in both reactive vaccination strategies and when an incursion occurred into a previously vaccinated population. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.