Study on the interaction and relation of society, economy and environment based on PCA–VAR model: As a case study of the Bohai Rim region, China
Study on the interaction and relation of society, economy and environment based on PCA–VAR model: As a case study of the Bohai Rim region, China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.07.036
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Feifei Tan;Zhaohua Lu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Feifei Tan;Zhaohua Lu
整个区域发展的持续成功取决于保持社会、经济和环境领域的功能、质量和和谐进步，因此探索它们之间的相互作用和关系是非常重要的。提出了主成分分析与向量自回归相结合的模型，将各因子之间的综合值和动态分析联系起来，实现了社会、经济和环境子系统之间相互作用和关系的定性和定量分析，为环渤海地区社会、经济和环境子系统变化之间的影响进行概念化和未来情景模拟提供了框架。特别是矢量自回归方法的脉冲响应分析和方差分解，允许每两个系统之间的动态交互，并分别显示出每个变化的贡献的清晰分解。研究结果表明：在研究期间，无论将经济增长与社会进步作为内生变量，两者之间都存在促进的良性循环，但对环境变化产生了负面影响；社会环境状况的改善最需要的可能是推进自身的进步；这也反映出，由于三个子系统的明显不平衡，整个复杂系统走上了不可持续的发展道路；情景分析结果表明，要实现协调发展，预计环境水平年均增长12% ~ 16%，社会经济水平年均提高8%。这项研究指导了未来社会、经济和环境发展之间相对更和谐的相互联系的可能性。
Ongoing success throughout regional development is contingent on maintaining the function, quality and harmony progress in society, economy and environment domains, so exploring the interaction and relation among them should be considerable significant. The model by coupling principal component analysis and vector autoregressive, which relate the aggregated values and dynamic analysis among factors, is proposed to achieve the qualitative and quantitative analysis of interaction and relation among society, economy and environment subsystem, providing a framework to conceptualize the influences among their changes and simulate the future scenarios in the Bohai Rim region. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of vector autoregressive method, in particular, permit dynamic interaction between every two systems and display clear decomposition of contribution for each change, respectively. This study results show that: there is a virtuous circle of promotion between economic growth and social progress no matter which is regarded as the endogenous variable during the study period, and yet the negative effect to environmental changes had been produced; what the improvement of social and environmental situation need most might be advancing its own progress; it is also reflected that the entire complicated system walk on the path of unsustainable development due to the evident disequilibrium of three subsystems; and the scenario analysis results obviously tell that in order to attain coordinated development, the annual growth rate of 12% to 16% of overall environmental level should be anticipated along with 8% of social and economic level improve. The study guide future possibilities for relatively more harmonious interconnections among social, economic and the environmental development.