Seasonal Variation of Chemical Species Associated With Short-Term Mortality Effects of PM2.5 in Xi'an, a Central City in China
Seasonal Variation of Chemical Species Associated With Short-Term Mortality Effects of PM2.5 in Xi'an, a Central City in China
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwr342
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发表时间：
2012-03-15
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Zhu, Tong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Wei;Cao, Junji;Zhu, Tong
利用2004年-2008年西安市逐日空气污染和全死因及特定死因死亡数据，对空气动力学直径小于2.5微米颗粒物(PM2.5)和化学物质的死亡风险进行了时间序列分析。结合自然样条线的泊松回归被用来估计PM2.5及其化学成分的死亡风险，调整了一周中的哪一天、时间趋势和气象影响。延迟暴露1-2天，全因死亡率增加2.29%(95%可信区间：0.83，3.76)，心血管死亡率增加3.08%(95%可信区间：0.94，5.26)，四分位数范围增加103.0微克/米(3)。在老年人(65岁)、男性和心血管疾病组中观察到更强的影响。二次成分(硫酸盐和铵)、燃烧物种(元素碳、硫、氯)和过渡金属(铬、铅、镍和锌)似乎是增加风险的主要原因，特别是在寒冷的月份。作者的结论是，观察到的跨物种和季节的不同关联模式表明，PM2.5的相关影响可能不能仅由PM2.5质量来充分解释。未来的研究需要检验可能在改变PM2.5-死亡率关联中发挥重要作用的空间和时间变化因素。
The authors conducted a time-series analysis to examine seasonal variation of mortality risk in association with particulate matter less than 2.5 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and chemical species in Xi'an, China, using daily air pollution and all-cause and cause-specific mortality data (2004-2008). Poisson regression incorporating natural splines was used to estimate mortality risks of PM2.5 and its chemical components, adjusting for day of the week, time trend, and meteorologic effects. Increases of 2.29% (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 3.76) for all-cause mortality and 3.08% (95% confidence interval: 0.94, 5.26) for cardiovascular mortality were associated with an interquartile range increase of 103.0 mu g/m(3) in lagged 1-2 day PM2.5 exposure. Stronger effects were observed for the elderly (>= 65 years), males, and cardiovascular diseases groups. Secondary components (sulfate and ammonium), combustion species (elemental carbon, sulfur, chlorine), and transition metals (chromium, lead, nickel, and zinc) appeared most responsible for increased risk, particularly in the cold months. The authors concluded that differential association patterns observed across species and seasons indicated that PM2.5-related effects might not be sufficiently explained by PM2.5 mass alone. Future research is needed to examine spatial and temporal varying factors that might play important roles in modifying the PM2.5-mortality association.