Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty
Agricultural production amid conflict: Separating the effects of conflict into shocks and uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.011
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
6.9
通讯作者：
Zambrano, Andres
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alejandra Arias, Maria;Maria Ibanez, Ana;Zambrano, Andres
本文考察了冲突对小农农业生产的影响。首先，建立了农业生产的跨期模型，其中冲突的影响通过冲突带来的暴力冲击和不确定性传播。我们使用一项独特的家庭调查来检验该模型，该调查适用于哥伦比亚四个微型地区的4800户家庭。我们的研究结果表明，尽管家庭的收入轨迹较低，但他们学会了在冲突中生活。当非国家武装行为者的存在延长时，农民从需要高投资的活动转向短期收益和较低盈利能力的活动。如果在有非国家武装行为者存在的地区暴力加剧，农民就会集中精力从事维持生计的活动。(C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small farmers. First, an inter temporal model of agricultural production is developed in which the impact of conflict is transmitted through violent shocks and uncertainty brought about by conflict. We test the model using a unique household survey applied to 4800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. Our findings suggest households learn to live amid conflict, albeit at a lower income trajectory. When presence of non-state armed actors prolongs, farmers shift to activities with short-term yields and lower profitability from activities that require high investments. If violence intensifies in regions with presence of non-state armed actors, farmers concentrate on subsistence activities. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.