Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan
Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00604.x
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Shapiro, Jacob N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blair, Graeme;Fair, C. Christine;Shapiro, Jacob N.
关于结束极端主义暴力战略的政策辩论经常将贫困视为支持犯罪团体的根本原因。几乎没有证据支持这一论点，特别是在巴基斯坦的案例中。巴基斯坦的城市贫民更容易受到激进暴力的负面外部影响，而且事实上可能不太支持这些团体。为了检验这些假设，我们对巴基斯坦人进行了一项 6,000 人的全国代表性调查，衡量了他们对四个激进组织的影响。通过应用一种新颖的测量策略，我们减轻了由于好战性的敏感性而困扰先前研究的项目无反应和社会期望偏差。与预期相反，贫穷的巴基斯坦人比中产阶级更讨厌武装分子。这种厌恶在城市贫民中最为强烈，尤其是那些生活在暴力地区的贫民，这表明遭受恐怖袭击会减少对武装分子的支持。长期以来将支持暴力组织与收入挂钩的争论可能需要进行重大修改。
Policy debates on strategies to end extremist violence frequently cite poverty as a root cause of support for the perpetrating groups. There is little evidence to support this contention, particularly in the Pakistani case. Pakistan's urban poor are more exposed to the negative externalities of militant violence and may in fact be less supportive of the groups. To test these hypotheses we conducted a 6,000-person, nationally representative survey of Pakistanis that measured affect toward four militant organizations. By applying a novel measurement strategy, we mitigate the item nonresponse and social desirability biases that plagued previous studies due to the sensitive nature of militancy. Contrary to expectations, poor Pakistanis dislike militants more than middle-class citizens. This dislike is strongest among the urban poor, particularly those in violent districts, suggesting that exposure to terrorist attacks reduces support for militants. Long-standing arguments tying support for violent organizations to income may require substantial revision.