Tropical Cyclone Frequency Under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations
Tropical Cyclone Frequency Under Varying SSTs in Aquaplanet Simulations
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl091980
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发表时间：
2021-03-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Robinson, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burnett, Adam C.;Sheshadri, Aditi;Robinson, Thomas
在一个50 km分辨率的水行星模式中研究了在纬向对称海表温度（SST）强迫下的全球热带气旋（TC）频率。TC频率每单位面积被发现是成比例的科里奥利参数在热带辐合区（ITCZ），定义的纬度最大降水。随着最大海温纬度的北移，降水最大值也随之北移，TC频数增加。当SST最大值北移超过25 ° N时，降水最大值保持在15 ° N和20 ° N之间，单位面积TC频率近似不变。当应用到观测到的降水和SST数据，相同的缩放捕获观测到的TC的相当大的一部分。结果表明，未来的TC活动的变化将调制的大尺度环流的变化，特别是ITCZ的位置是一个重要的决定因素的TC的数量。
Global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency is investigated in a 50-km-resolution aquaplanet model forced by zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST). TC frequency per unit area is found to be proportional to the Coriolis parameter at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), as defined by the latitude of maximum precipitation. As the latitude of maximum SST is shifted northward from the equator, the precipitation maximum moves northward and TC frequency increases. When the SST maximum is shifted northward past 25 degrees N, the precipitation maximum remains between 15 degrees N and 20 degrees N, and TC frequency per unit area is approximately constant. When applied to observed precipitation and SST data, the same scaling captures a substantial fraction of observed TCs. Results suggest that future changes in TC activity will be modulated by changes in the large-scale circulation, and in particular that the ITCZ location is an important determinant of the number of TCs.