Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes
Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1520420113
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发表时间：
2016-05-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Leland, Amanda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Costello, Christopher;Ovando, Daniel;Leland, Amanda
分析了全球4713个渔业的数据，占全球报告渔获量的78%，以估计恢复枯竭渔业的替代方法的现状、趋势和好处。对于每个渔业，我们估计当前的生物状况，并预测不同的管理制度对海洋鱼类的渔获量、利润和生物量的影响。我们为每个渔业估计独特的恢复目标和轨迹，计算替代恢复方法的逐年影响，并模拟替代机构改革如何影响恢复结果。目前的状况是高度多样化的--中位数渔业健康状况不佳(过度捕捞，并出现进一步过度捕捞)，尽管32%的渔业处于良好的生物条件，尽管不一定是经济条件。我们一切照旧的情景预计，世界上许多渔业将进一步分化和继续崩溃。在我们的数据集中对全球渔业实施健全的管理改革，与往常相比，每年可产生超过1600万公吨(MMT)的捕获量、530亿美元的利润和6.19亿公吨的生物量。我们还发现，如果进行适当的改革，恢复可以很快发生，渔业中位数需要不到10年的时间才能达到恢复目标。我们的结果表明，渔业管理的常识性改革将极大地改善总体鱼类丰度，同时提高粮食安全和利润。
Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.