Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
复制标题
英国脱欧的不确定性和贸易解体
DOI：
10.3386/w25334
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Limão
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alejandro Graziano;Kyle Handley;N. Limão
我们估计了优惠贸易分歧的不确定性效应。英国退出欧盟（Brexit）的可能性增加，降低了双边出口价值和贸易参与。这些影响正在增加跨产品的贸易政策风险。我们估计，在平均4.5%的分歧关税下，公投后英国脱欧的可能性增加会使欧盟-英国的双边出口价值降低11-20%。欧盟和英国的出口商都认为不太可能爆发贸易战。
We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products. We estimate that at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% the increase in the probability of Brexit after the referendum lowered EU–UK bilateral export values between 11–20%. Neither the EU or UK exporters believed a trade war was likely.