USE OF PREDICTION MODELS TO FORECAST AND ANALYZE AIRBORNE SPREAD DURING THE FOOT-AND-MOUTH-DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN BRITTANY, JERSEY AND THE ISLE OF WIGHT IN 1981
USE OF PREDICTION MODELS TO FORECAST AND ANALYZE AIRBORNE SPREAD DURING THE FOOT-AND-MOUTH-DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN BRITTANY, JERSEY AND THE ISLE OF WIGHT IN 1981
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DOI：
10.1136/vr.110.3.53
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发表时间：
1982-01-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
DEANS, DH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DONALDSON, AI;GLOSTER, J;DEANS, DH
1981 年 3 月 4 日至 26 日期间，法国兽医当局报告了一系列由 O 型口蹄疫 (FMD) 病毒引起的疾病暴发，其中 13 起在布列塔尼，1 起在诺曼底。英国于3月19日在泽西岛和3月22日在怀特岛报告了O型口蹄疫。概述了对怀特岛农场的现场和实验室调查。描述了使用短程和远程数值模型来预测口蹄疫从布列塔尼到英国的空气传播，然后评估英国境内进一步空气传播的风险的方法。
Between March 4 and 26, 1981 the French veterinary authorities reported a series of 14 outbreaks of disease due to type O foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus, 13 in Brittany and one in Normandy. The United Kingdom reported FMD type O in Jersey on March 19 and in the Isle of Wight on March 22. The field and laboratory investigations on the farm in the Isle of Wight are outlined. The way in which short and long range numerical models were used to forecast the airborne spread of FMD from Brittany to the UK and then to assess the risk of further airborne spread within the UK is described.