Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in a Simulation of the Last Two Millennia: Results from the Community Earth System Model
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in a Simulation of the Last Two Millennia: Results from the Community Earth System Model
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过去两千年模拟中的热带气旋成因：社区地球系统模型的结果
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-15-0054.1
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Zhang Zhongshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yan Qing;Korty Robert;Zhang Zhongshi
利用一个耦合的全球气候模式--社区地球系统模式（CESM），研究了热带气旋（TC）生成因子（即，潜在强度，垂直风切变，对流层中层水分含量和绝对涡度）的外部强迫在过去的两千年（L2 M）。然后，他们研究了有利于TC活动的大规模条件如何使用成因潜力指数（GPI）变化。这些大规模的成因因素一般没有表现出长期的趋势，在工业革命之前的L2 M的模拟，在年际变化的蔓延在于一个小窗口。估计的TC活动是高度可变的，从地区到地区的几十年的时间尺度。相对于L2 M的前几个世纪，世纪北方半球的条件似乎更有利于TC的形成。此外，在中世纪气候异常（AD 10...
AbstractUsing a coupled global climate model, Community Earth System Model (CESM), the authors investigate the response of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis factors (i.e., potential intensity, vertical wind shear, midtropospheric moisture content, and absolute vorticity) to external forcings in the last two millennia (L2M). They then examine how the large-scale conditions that favor TC activity varied using a genesis potential index (GPI). These large-scale genesis factors generally exhibit no long-term trend in the simulation of the L2M prior to the industrial revolution, and the spread in the interannual variability lies within a small window. The estimated TC activity is highly variable from region to region on multidecadal time scales. Conditions appear to be more favorable for TC genesis in the twentieth century in the Northern Hemisphere relative to earlier centuries of the L2M. Additionally, conditions in this simulation are not more favorable for TC formation during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 10...