The Importance of Prehistoric Data and Variability of Hazard Regimes in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment – Examples from Australia
The Importance of Prehistoric Data and Variability of Hazard Regimes in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment – Examples from Australia
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史前数据和灾害制度的可变性在自然灾害风险评估中的重要性 - 以澳大利亚为例
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
J. Nott
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作者：
J. Nott
自然灾害通常被视为加班后随机发生的事件。这一概念通常构成发展风险评估中使用的危险程度-复发间隔关系的基础。然而，危险的可变性并不总是符合这种关系，特别是在较长的时间间隔内。在某些灾害中，非平稳性可能是常见的，变异性和/或平均(震级/频率)保持不变的时期在这里被称为危险区域。从一个政权到另一个政权的转变发生在从几个世纪到几千年的不同时间尺度上。只有通过检查通常包括史前数据的较长期记录，才能辨别出政权的更迭。风险评估经常忽视这些机制的变化，当这种评估仅仅基于较短的历史记录时，对澳大利亚与热带气旋、海啸、陆地洪水和山体滑坡相关的风险的估计被低估和夸大。
Natural hazards are normally viewed as events that occur randomly overtime. This precept usually forms the basis for the development of the hazardmagnitude-recurrence interval relationship used in risk assessments. However,hazard variability does not always conform to this relationship especially overlonger time intervals. Non-stationarity can be common with some hazards andthose periods where the variability and/or mean (magnitude/frequency) remainconstant are referred to here as hazard regimes. Shifts from one regime to anotheroccur at a variety of time scales from centuries to millennia. Regime shifts areoften only discernible by examining longer-term records which usually includeprehistoric data. Risk assessments frequently ignore these regime shifts andestimates of the risks associated with tropical cyclones, tsunami, terrestrialfloods and landslides in Australia have been both under-estimated and exaggeratedwhen such assessments have been based solely upon short historical records.Examples of these regime shifts and their significance for natural hazard riskassessment are presented here.