Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions
Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions
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明瑟盈利回归五十年
DOI：
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Petra E. Todd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Heckman;L. Lochner;Petra E. Todd
明瑟盈余函数是实证经济学大量文献的基石。本文讨论了明瑟模型的理论基础，并利用十年一次的人口普查和当前人口调查的数据检验了该模型的实证支持。虽然1940年和1950年的人口普查数据为明瑟的模型提供了一些支持，但后来几十年的数据却与之不符。我们研究了放松功能形式假设在估计学校教育内部回报率和会计税收、学费、学校教育非线性以及学校教育和工作经验之间不可分割性方面的重要性。从我们更一般的模型中得出的关于高中和大学回报率趋势的推论与基于Mincer收入回归的估计得出的推论有很大不同。基于群体和横断面的复学率估计之间也存在重要差异。在最近一段技术快速进步的时期，广泛使用的明瑟模型的横断面应用产生了对群体教育回报的严重偏差估计。我们还研究了会计对不确定性和代理期望形成的影响。即使维持Mincer的静态框架，考虑不确定性也会对收益估计产生实质性影响。考虑动态环境中不确定性随时间的顺序解决，产生了选项值，这从根本上改变了学校决策的分析。在不确定性和期权价值存在顺序解决的情况下，内部收益率——经典人力资本理论的基石——并不是政策分析的有用指南。
The Mincer earnings function is the cornerstone of a large literature in empirical economics. This paper discusses the theoretical foundations of the Mincer model and examines the empirical support for it using data from Decennial Censuses and Current Population Surveys. While data from 1940 and 1950 Censuses provide some support for Mincer's model, data from later decades are inconsistent with it. We examine the importance of relaxing functional form assumptions in estimating internal rates of return to schooling and of accounting for taxes, tuition, nonlinearity in schooling, and nonseparability between schooling and work experience. Inferences about trends in rates of return to high school and college obtained from our more general model differ substantially from inferences drawn from estimates based on a Mincer earnings regression. Important differences also arise between cohort-based and cross-sectional estimates of the rate of return to schooling. In the recent period of rapid technological progress, widely used cross-sectional applications of the Mincer model produce dramatically biased estimates of cohort returns to schooling. We also examine the implications of accounting for uncertainty and agent expectation formation. Even when the static framework of Mincer is maintained, accounting for uncertainty substantially affects the return estimates. Considering the sequential resolution of uncertainty over time in a dynamic setting gives rise to option values, which fundamentally changes the analysis of schooling decisions. In the presence of sequential resolution of uncertainty and option values, the internal rate of return - a cornerstone of classical human capital theory - is not a useful guide to policy analysis.