Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotion
Evolving judgments of terror risks: Foresight, hindsight, and emotion
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DOI：
10.1037/1076-898x.11.2.124
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Small, DA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fischhoff, B;Gonzalez, RA;Small, DA
作者研究了2001年底至2002年底期间具有全国代表性的美国人样本对恐怖风险的认知和情感反应的演变。受访者的风险判断改变的方式与他们报告的个人经历一致。然而，他们没有意识到这些变化，在他们的判断中产生了后见之明的记忆偏差。一个密集的去偏见程序未能恢复一个前瞻性的观点，一个恐惧诱导操纵增加风险估计，而愤怒诱导操纵减少他们在预测（如前所述）和记忆和判断过去的风险。因此，启动情绪不仅塑造了对抽象未来的感知，也塑造了对具体过去的感知。这些结果表明，心理学研究如何有助于确保公众知情。
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective, A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public.