Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File.
Mortality Measurement at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File.
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DOI：
10.1080/10920277.2011.10597629
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Gavrilova NS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gavrilov LA;Gavrilova NS
准确估计高龄死亡率对于改进对死亡率和最高龄年龄组人口规模的预测至关重要。然而，估计极高龄人群的危险率给研究人员带来了严峻的挑战：(1)观察到的死亡率下降可能至少部分是混合了不同出生队列和不同死亡率的人为因素（异质性效应）；(2)当老年人死亡风险极高时，危害率估计的标准假设可能无效；(3)高龄人群的年龄可能被夸大。获得极端年龄死亡率估计值的一种方法是汇集存活到极端年龄的人的国际记录，并随后进行严格的年龄验证。这种方法帮助研究人员解决了上述第三个问题，但不能解决前两个问题，因为当属于不同出生队列和国家的人的数据汇集在一起时，不可避免地存在数据异质性。在本文中，我们提出了一种替代方法，该方法通过汇编更均匀的单年出生队列的数据，以窄（每月）年龄间隔测量危险率，从而有机会解决前两个问题。阐述了解决危害率估计第三个问题的可能方法。这种方法是基于来自社会保障局死亡主档案（DMF）的数据。一些被DMF覆盖的出生队列可以用灭绝代的方法进行研究。出生月份和死亡月份的信息提供了一个独特的机会，可以获得每个月龄的危险率估计数。对几个一年绝迹的出生队列的研究表明，直到102-105岁，高龄的死亡率轨迹遵循Gompertz定律，没有明显的减速。早期关于100岁以下死亡率下降（死亡率偏离Gompertz定律）的报告似乎是将几个死亡率水平不同的出生队列混合在一起并使用横断面数据而不是队列数据的人为产物。年龄夸大和对高龄死亡率的粗略假设也可能导致对高龄死亡率的低估。
Accurate estimates of mortality at advanced ages are essential to improving forecasts of mortality and the population size of the oldest old age group. However, estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: (1) The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality (heterogeneity effect); (2) standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages and (3) ages of very old people may be exaggerated. One way of obtaining estimates of mortality at extreme ages is to pool together international records of persons surviving to extreme ages with subsequent efforts of strict age validation. This approach helps researchers to resolve the third of the above-mentioned problems but does not resolve the first two problems because of inevitable data heterogeneity when data for people belonging to different birth cohorts and countries are pooled together. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow (monthly) age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation are elaborated. This approach is based on data from the Social Security Administration Death Master File (DMF). Some birth cohorts covered by DMF could be studied by the method of extinct generations. Availability of month of birth and month of death information provides a unique opportunity to obtain hazard rate estimates for every month of age. Study of several single-year extinct birth cohorts shows that mortality trajectory at advanced ages follows the Gompertz law up to the ages 102–105 years without a noticeable deceleration. Earlier reports of mortality deceleration (deviation of mortality from the Gompertz law) at ages below 100 appear to be artifacts of mixing together several birth cohorts with different mortality levels and using cross-sectional instead of cohort data. Age exaggeration and crude assumptions applied to mortality estimates at advanced ages may also contribute to mortality underestimation at very advanced ages.