EPIDEMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTION IN THE SPREAD OF POTENTIALLY FATAL DISEASES IN GROWING POPULATIONS
EPIDEMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC INTERACTION IN THE SPREAD OF POTENTIALLY FATAL DISEASES IN GROWING POPULATIONS
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DOI：
10.1016/0025-5564(92)90081-7
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发表时间：
1992-09-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
THIEME, HR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
THIEME, HR
一种潜在致命的传染病的传播被认为是在一个宿主群体中传播的，如果没有这种疾病，这个群体将呈指数级增长。考虑到有效接触率C（N）如何取决于人口规模N，该模型表明人口统计学和流行病学结论关键取决于接触函数C的性质。给出了发生以下情景的条件：（i）疾病传播速度低于人口增长速度，并且不会改变人口增长率;（ii）疾病最初传播速度快于人口增长速度，并降低人口增长率从长远来看，以下三种子情景是可能的：（iia）人口仍然呈指数级增长，但速度较慢;（iib）人口增长有限，但人口规模不衰减;（iic）人口增长转化为人口减少。
The spread of a potentially fatal infectious disease is considered in a host population that would increase exponentially in the absence of the disease. Taking into account how the effective contact rate C(N) depends on the population size N, the model demonstrates that demographic and epidemiological conclusions depend crucially on the properties of the contact function C. Conditions are given for the following scenarios to occur: (i) the disease spreads at a lower rate than the population grows and does not modify the population growth rate; (ii) the disease initially spreads at a faster rate than the population grows and lowers the population growth rate in the long run and the following three subscenarios are possible: (iia) the population still grows exponentially, but at a slower rate; (iib) population growth is limited, but the population size does not decay; (iic) population increase is converted into population decrease.