Climate, urbanization, and species traits interactively drive flowering duration
Climate, urbanization, and species traits interactively drive flowering duration
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15461
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发表时间：
2020-12-13
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Guralnick, Robert P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Daijiang;Barve, Narayani;Guralnick, Robert P.
每年春天，一波绿叶和五彩斑斓的花朵从低纬度向高纬度推进。然而，对于同一物种的开花结束（即花期结束）以及种群花期时长如何随环境梯度变化，我们知之甚少。了解这些模式对于预测未来气候和土地利用变化对植物、传粉者和食草动物的影响至关重要。在此，我们研究了52种具有不同关键特征的植物的开花起始、结束和时长的潜在气候和景观驱动因素。我们利用超过27万张社区科学照片以及一种新的仅基于存在性的物候估计方法得出了物候估计值。我们发现，在较温暖的地区花期更长，与春季开花的物种相比，夏季开花的物种这种现象更为明显，这是由它们截然不同的花期结束动态所驱动的。我们还发现，较高的人口密度和较高的年降水量与花期结束延迟以及花期延长有关。最后，木本多年生植物的花期结束对气候和城市化驱动因素比草本植物更为敏感。经验预测模型表明，在代表性浓度路径（RCP）8.5情景下，2030年和2050年的花期将会更长，尤其是夏季开花的物种。我们的研究为关键开花物候期的驱动因素提供了重要见解，并证实了霍普金斯生物气候定律也适用于夏季开花物种和草本春季开花物种的花期时长。
A wave of green leaves and multi-colored flowers advances from low to high latitudes each spring. However, little is known about how flowering offset (i.e., ending of flowering) and duration of populations of the same species vary along environmental gradients. Understanding these patterns is critical for predicting the effects of future climate and land-use change on plants, pollinators, and herbivores. Here, we investigated potential climatic and landscape drivers of flowering onset, offset, and duration of 52 plant species with varying key traits. We generated phenology estimates using >270,000 community-science photographs and a novel presence-only phenometric estimation method. We found longer flowering durations in warmer areas, which is more obvious for summer-blooming species compared to spring-bloomers driven by their strongly differing offset dynamics. We also found that higher human population density and higher annual precipitation are associated with delayed flowering offset and extended flowering duration. Finally, offset of woody perennials was more sensitive than herbaceous species to both climate and urbanization drivers. Empirical forecast models suggested that flowering durations will be longer in 2030 and 2050 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, especially for summer-blooming species. Our study provides critical insight into drivers of key flowering phenophases and confirms that Hopkins' Bioclimatic Law also applies to flowering durations for summer-blooming species and herbaceous spring-blooming species.