Exploring the relationship between development and road traffic injuries: a case study from India
Exploring the relationship between development and road traffic injuries: a case study from India
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DOI：
10.1093/eurpub/ckl031
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发表时间：
2006-10-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Hyder, Adnan A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garg, Nitin;Hyder, Adnan A.
背景：道路交通伤害 (RTI) 是世界范围内死亡和残疾的主要原因。只有在遭受重大损失之后，发达国家的社区才会采取必要措施来防止事故及其后果。道路安全的提高与社会经济的发展有关。我们的目标是研究发展中国家印度的伤害和死亡率趋势，定义地方差异，并分析这些趋势与经济和人口增长的关系。方法：使用印度公共部门的数据来开发交通伤害和经济发展指标的标准化数据库。使用线性回归模型对数据进行分析，以检验各州国内生产总值（NDP）与道路交通事故伤害和死亡率之间存在正相关关系的先验假设。结果：过去三十年来，印度的 RTI 绝对负担一直在持续上升。报告的比率低于全球卫生机构估计的比率，可能反映出报告不足。与基于车辆的费率相比，基于人口的费率可以更好地评估 RTI 的公共卫生负担。新民主党与伤亡率之间存在倒U型关系。即使数据有限，库兹涅茨现象在国内水平比较中也很明显。结论：印度和其他发展中国家可以借鉴高度机动化国家的经验，通过目前对道路安全和预防措施的投资，避免随着经济发展而出现的道路交通事故和死亡人数预期上升。
Background: Road traffic injuries (RTI) are a major cause of mortality and disability in the world. Only after significant losses have communities in developed nations taken necessary steps to prevent crashes and their consequences. Increase in road safety is related to increasing socio-economic development. We aim to study the trends in injury and death rates in a developing country, India, define sub-national variations, and analyse these trends in relation to economic and population growth. Methods: Public sector data from India were used to develop a standardized database on traffic injuries and indicator of economic development. The data were analysed using linear regression models to test the a priori hypothesis of a positive relationship between net domestic product (NDP), and injury and death rates from road crashes across states. Results: The absolute burden of RTI in India has been consistently rising over the past three decades. The reported rates are lower than those estimated by global health agencies and may reflect under-reporting. Population-based rates provide a better assessment of the public health burden of RTI than vehicle-based rates. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between NDP and injury and death rates. Even with the limited data, Kuznets phenomenon is evident for within-country level comparisons. Conclusions: India and other developing countries could learn from the experience of highly motorized nations to avoid the expected rise in RTI and deaths with economic development, by currently investing in road safety and prevention measures.