Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa
Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl065765
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Ross Maidment;R. Allan;E. Black
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ross Maidment;R. Allan;E. Black
分析了耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段的多个观测数据集和仅大气模拟，以描述非洲最近降雨变化和趋势，重点关注1983-2010年。发现了显示虚假变异的数据集，部分与雨量计密度的减少有关。其余的观测结果显示，萨赫勒地区年降雨量一致增加（每十年29至43毫米/年），东非3 - 5月降雨量减少（每十年-14至-65毫米/年），南部非洲年降雨量增加（每十年32至41毫米/年）。然而，中非的年降雨量趋势在符号上有所不同（每十年-10至+39毫米/年）。对于南部非洲，观测到的和海表温度（SST）强迫模式模拟的降雨变率显著相关（r~0.5），并与最近加强太平洋步行者环流相关的SST模式有关。
Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere‐only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr−1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr−1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr−1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr−1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)‐forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.