OSCILLATORY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASE AND THE IMPACT OF VACCINATION - TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
OSCILLATORY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INCIDENCE OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASE AND THE IMPACT OF VACCINATION - TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
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DOI：
10.1017/s0022172400065177
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发表时间：
1984-01-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
ANDERSON, RM;GRENFELL, BT;MAY, RM
时间序列分析技术（自相关和频谱分析）被用来检查振荡长期趋势的传染病的发病率和大规模疫苗接种计划对这些有据可查的现象的影响。重点关注三种常见的儿童疾病：百日咳和腮腺炎（使用英格兰和威尔士[英国]已公布的疾病发病率数据）和麻疹（使用英格兰和威尔士，苏格兰，北美和法国的数据）。这一分析表明，在接种疫苗前的时期，疾病发病率具有高度统计学显著的季节性和长期周期。一般来说，长期波动（麻疹为2年，百日咳和腮腺炎为3年）占这些数据的大部分周期性变化，特别是在英格兰和威尔士的高度定期麻疹系列。接种疫苗后，长期振荡的周期趋于增加，这一观察结果证实了理论预测。麻疹的大规模免疫接种（减少了流行病的波动）放大了季节性周期的相对重要性。在英格兰和威尔士，高水平的百日咳疫苗接种似乎抑制了年度周期。
The techniques of time series analysis was used (autocorrelation and spectral analysis) to examine oscillatory secular trends in the incidence of infectious diseases and the impact of mass vaccination programs on these well-documented phenomena. Three common childhood diseases are focused on: pertussis and mumps (using published disease-incidence data for England and Wales [UK]) and measles (using data from England and Wales, Scotland, North America and France). This analysis indicates highly statistically significant seasonal and longer-term cycles in disease incidence in the prevaccination era. In general, the longer-term fluctuations (a 2-yr period for measles, 3-yr periods for pertussis and mumps) account for most of the cyclical variability in these data, particularly in the highly regular measles series for England and Wales. After vaccination, the periods of the longer-term oscillations tend to increase, an observation which corroborates theoretical predictions. Mass immunization against measles (which reduces epidemic fluctuations) magnifies the relative importance of the seasonal cycles. High levels of vaccination against whooping cough in England and Wales appear to have suppressed the annual cycle.