Evaluation of the Accuracy and Utility of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Single Ground-Based Doppler Radar Observations
Evaluation of the Accuracy and Utility of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Single Ground-Based Doppler Radar Observations
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DOI：
10.1175/mwr-d-15-0254.1
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Udai Shimada;M. Sawada;H. Yamada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Udai Shimada;M. Sawada;H. Yamada
利用单次地基多普勒雷达观测资料对22个逼近日本的热带气旋（TC）的28个个例的强度（中心气压）进行了估算，并对估算方法的精度和实用性进行了评价。该方法使用地基速度轨迹显示（GBVTD）技术，它检索切向风，和梯度风平衡方程。在将该方法应用于28个病例之前，用数值模拟获得的伪多普勒速度进行了初步实验，以确认该方法可以合理地估计中心压力。与东京区域专业气象中心（RSMC）的最佳路径资料相比，28个案例的估计强度的均方根误差为8.37 hPa，并显示出1.51 hPa的偏差。这一准确度与德沃夏克和卫星微波估计的准确度相当或更高。定义了两个距离度量：1）TC CE之间的距离。
AbstractIntensities (central pressures) of 28 cases of 22 tropical cyclones (TCs) that approached Japan were estimated by using single ground-based Doppler radar observations, and the accuracy and utility of the estimation method were evaluated. The method uses the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) technique, which retrieves tangential winds, and the gradient wind balance equation. Before application of the method to the 28 cases, a preliminary experiment was performed with pseudo-Doppler velocities obtained by numerical simulation to confirm that the method could reasonably estimate central pressures. Compared with best track data from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, the estimated intensities of the 28 cases had a root-mean-square error of 8.37 hPa and showed a bias of 1.51 hPa. This level of accuracy is comparable to or better than the accuracies of Dvorak and satellite microwave-derived estimates. Two distance metrics are defined: 1) the distance between the TC ce...