Use of Changes in Tropopause Height to Detect Human Influences on Climate
Use of Changes in Tropopause Height to Detect Human Influences on Climate
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DOI：
10.1127/0941-2948/2003/0012-0131
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发表时间：
2003-06
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
R. Sausen;B. Santer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Sausen;B. Santer
在数值天气预报的再分析中，全球平均对流层顶高度自1979年以来呈稳定增长。这与自然和人为强迫驱动的气候模式的结果一致。在模拟和再分析中，叠加在数十年总体趋势上的是与火山爆发有关的高频波动（周期数年）。全球平均对流层顶高度具有理想的性质，可以作为一种自然过滤器，消除大部分阻碍对流层和地面温度变化解释的ENSO变化。在人为强迫的模式模拟中，对流层顶高度的变化可以比地表温度的变化早大约20年被检测到。
The height of the global-mean tropopause shows a steady increase since 1979 in re-analyses of numerical weather forecasts. This is in agreement with results from a climate model driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Superimposed on the multi-decadal overall trends in both simulations and re-analyses are higher-frequency fluctuations (with periods of few years) related to explosive volcanic eruptions. Global-mean tropopause height has the desirable property of acting as a natural filter, removing much of the ENSO variability that hampers the interpretation of tropospheric and surface temperature changes. In model simulations with anthropogenic forcings, changes in tropopause height can be detected roughly 20 years earlier than changes in surface temperature.