Labor Mobility Across The Formal/Informal Divide in Turkey: Evidence from Individual Level Data
Labor Mobility Across The Formal/Informal Divide in Turkey: Evidence from Individual Level Data
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土耳其跨越正式/非正式鸿沟的劳动力流动：来自个人层面数据的证据
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1978291
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. O. Kan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Tansel;E. O. Kan
非正规性长期以来一直是发展中国家劳动力市场的一个突出现象，因此在一些理论和实证研究中得到了解决。考虑到土耳其的经济和人口动态，土耳其提供了丰富的证据来证明其非正规劳动力市场正在不断增长、异质化和多元化。然而，关于土耳其劳动力非正规性的现有证据是混杂且匮乏的。沿着这些思路，我们的目标是通过对不同劳动力市场状态之间的动态工人流动进行诊断，并确定某些个人和工作特征对不同流动模式的影响，来扩展现有文献。更具体地说，我们首先利用马尔可夫转移过程开发和讨论一组基于每年工人在不同就业状态之间转移的概率统计数据。正如 Bosch 和 Maloney（2007：3）所言：“劳动力地位流动性可以被假设为一个过程，其中状态随时间随机发生变化，并且特定状态之间移动的概率由马尔可夫转移矩阵控制”。为此，我们将使用新颖的收入和生活条件调查（SILC）面板数据集来计算个人在正式受薪、非正式受薪、正式自营职业、非正式自营职业、失业和不活跃等劳动力市场状态之间流动的转变概率。转型分析分别针对与 2006 年至 2007 年、2006 年至 2008 年以及 2006 年至 2009 年转型相关的两年、三年和四年小组进行；男性和女性样本总数；最后是总样本和非农业样本。通过这种方式，我们的目标是为有关土耳其劳动力市场流动性和非正规性的有限的程式化事实做出贡献。接下来，我们对每组面板分别进行多项 Logit 回归，以确定个人特征（即性别、年龄、教育水平、工作经验、经济活动部门、公司规模、其他家庭成员数量、有/没有孩子、农村/城市）对工人转型的影响。结果揭示了协变量与变量转变的可能性之间的几种关系，对于设计解决劳动力非正规性并减少其负外部性的政策具有显着的重要性。
Informality has long been a salient phenomenon in developing country labor markets, thus has been addressed in several theoretical and empirical research. Turkey, given its economic and demographic dynamics, provides rich evidence for a growing, heterogeneous and multifaceted informal labor market. However, the existing evidence on labor informality in Turkey is mixed and scant. Along these lines, we aim to extend the existing literature by providing a diagnosis of dynamic worker flows across distinct labor market states and identifying the effects of certain individual and job characteristics on variant mobility patterns. More specifically, we first develop and discuss a set of probability statistics based on annual worker transitions across distinct employment states utilizing Markov transition processes. As Bosch and Maloney (2007:3) argue: "labor status mobility can be assumed as a process in which changes in the states occur randomly through time, and probabilities of moves between particular states are governed by Markov transition matrices". Towards this end, we will use the novel Income and Living Conditions Survey (SILC) panel data set to compute the transition probabilities of individuals moving across the labor market states of formal-salaried, informal-salaried, formal self-employed, informal self-employed, unemployed and inactive. The transitions analysis is conducted separately for two, three and four year panels pertaining to 2006 to 2007, 2006 to 2008 and 2006 to 2009 transitions; for total, male and female samples; and lastly for total and non-agricultural samples. In this way, we aim to contribute to the limited body of stylized facts available on mobility and informality in the Turkish labor market. Next, we conduct multinomial logit regressions individually for each set of panel to identify the impact of individual characteristics (i.e. gender, age, education level, work experience, sector of economic activity, firm size, number of other household members, having/not having children, rural/urban) underlying worker transitions. The results reveal several relationships between the covariates and likelihood of variant transitions, and are of remarkable importance for designing policy to address labor informality and reduce its negative externalities.