Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany
Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany
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DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2009.08.021
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发表时间：
2010-02-05
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Cullmann, Dominik A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hanewinkel, Marc;Hummel, Susan;Cullmann, Dominik A.
我们评估了德国西南部 130 万公顷森林面积从挪威云杉（Picea abies（喀斯特））到欧洲山毛榉（Fagus sylvatica (L)）的预测转变的经济影响。通过使用巴登-符腾堡州国家森林清查的存在/不存在数据、数字高程模型和该时期的区域化气候参数，利用广义线性模型 (GLM) 对这种转变进行了建模1970 年至 2000 年。对国际气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC)（B1、A2）针对三个不同时间尺度（2030 年、2065 年和 2100 年）的两种情景进行了调查。GLM 预测，与 2000 年相比，适合种植挪威云杉的面积将减少 21%（B1，2030 年）和 93%（A2，2100 年）。挪威云杉的潜在面积从 190,000 公顷减少到 860,000 公顷。然后使用经典的福斯特曼方法评估了这种面积减少的财务影响，即以土地预期价值 (LEV) 作为挪威云杉森林与欧洲山毛榉森林的经济参数，基础现金流是根据距离相关的单树生长模拟器 (SILVA) 根据当年的价格和成本数据得出的。 2004 年。利率为 2% 时，挪威云杉潜在面积的预计损失与 LEV 减少 6.9 亿至 31 亿欧元有关。我们讨论了这些结果对利率变化、风险水平和轮伐期长度的敏感性。结果表明，在两种气候情景下，管理林地以获取盈利将变得越来越困难。 (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies (Karst) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica (L) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalised linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Wurttemberg, a digital elevation model, and regionalised climate parameters from the period 1970 to 2000. Two scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (B1, A2) for three different time scales (2030, 2065, and 2100) were investigated. The GLM predicted a decrease of the suitable area for growing Norway spruce between 21% (B1, 2030) and 93% (A2, 2100) in comparison to 2000. This corresponds to a reduction in the potential area of Norway spruce from between 190,000 and 860,000 ha. The financial effect of this reduction in area was then evaluated by using a classical Faustmann approach, namely the land expectation value (LEV) as an economic parameter for forests of Norway spruce versus European beech. Underlying cash flows were derived from a distance dependent, single-tree growth simulator (SILVA) based on data for prices and costs of the year 2004. With an interest rate of r = 2%, the predicted loss in the potential area of Norway spruce is related to a decrease of the LEV between 690 million and 3.1 billion Euro. We discuss the sensitivity of these results to changing interest rates, risk levels, and rotation lengths. Results suggest that managing forestland for profitability will be increasingly difficult under both climate scenarios. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.