Implications of climate change for skin cancer prevention in Australia.
Implications of climate change for skin cancer prevention in Australia.
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气候变化对澳大利亚皮肤癌预防的影响。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
J. Makin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Makin
据估计，每年有近 45 万澳大利亚人患皮肤癌。澳大利亚 95% 以上的皮肤癌均由阳光中的紫外线 (UV) 辐射引起。因此，皮肤癌预防计划的重点是减少紫外线辐射。在维多利亚州，自 1988 年制定 SunSmart 计划以来，年轻人的防晒行为有所改善，晒伤和黑色素瘤发病率有所下降。然而，气候变化有可能破坏这些成功。首先，表面 UVB 辐射取决于平流层臭氧总量。尽管已经观察到国际上对消耗臭氧层物质生产限制的影响迹象，但臭氧消耗的改善尚未恢复到 20 世纪 70 年代之前的水平。臭氧消耗和气候变化之间的相互作用可能会减缓臭氧层的恢复，并导致某些纬度地区紫外线辐射的复合增加。在恢复之前，预计澳大利亚大部分地区的紫外线辐射水平将持续较高，从而导致皮肤癌的风险较高。事实上，最近的数据显示自 20 世纪 70 年代以来整个澳大利亚的表面紫外线辐射有所增加。其次，澳大利亚的平均气温在过去 30 年中有所上升，预计到 2030 年将进一步上升。澳大利亚的数据显示，随着气温升高，成年人在户外的时间增多，穿遮盖衣服的可能性降低，被晒伤的可能性也更大。因此，气温升高预计会导致阳光照射、晒伤以及相应的皮肤癌风险增加。
It is estimated that nearly 450,000 Australians get skin cancer every year. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight has been identified as the cause of more than 95% of skin cancers in Australia. Accordingly, the focus of skin cancer prevention programs is reducing exposure to UV radiation. In Victoria, improvements in sun protection behaviours and reductions in sunburn and melanoma incidence rates among younger people have been observed since the SunSmart program was established in 1988. However, climate change has the potential to undermine these successes. First, surface UVB radiation is dependent on stratospheric total ozone amounts. While signs of impact of international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances have been observed, improvements have not yet returned ozone to pre-1970s levels. Interactions between ozone depletion and climate change may slow the recovery of the ozone layer and compound increases in UV radiation at some latitudes. Before recovery, it is expected that higher levels of UV radiation will continue in most Australian regions, with an associated higher risk of skin cancer. Indeed, recent data show increases in surface UV radiation throughout Australia since the 1970s. Second, mean temperatures in Australia have increased over the past 30 years and are projected to rise further by 2030. Australian data shows that with higher temperatures, adults spend more time outdoors, are less likely to wear covering clothing and more likely to be sunburnt. Hence, rising temperatures can be expected to result in increases in sun exposure, sunburn and correspondingly, skin cancer risk.