Evaluation of a spatially sex‐specific assessment method incorporating a habitat preference model for blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) in the Pacific Ocean
Evaluation of a spatially sex‐specific assessment method incorporating a habitat preference model for blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) in the Pacific Ocean
复制标题
结合太平洋蓝枪鱼（Makaira nigricans）栖息地偏好模型的空间性别评估方法的评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Dinardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Su;Chi;A. Punt;S. Yeh;G. Dinardo
蓝马林，广泛分布于整个太平洋，是两性异形，有一定的首选栖息地，季节性迁移。这些特性在以前的种群评估模型中被忽略了。因此，构建了一个人口动态模型，包括空间结构，性别和年龄结构，并拟合渔业数据的蓝色马林，沿着与信息的相对密度的人口在空间上来自一个栖息地偏好模型，使用海洋学和生物学变量海面温度，混合层深度，海面高度异常，叶绿素a浓度。然后用蒙特卡罗模拟来检验种群评估方法的估计性能。当评估方法忽略季节性移动和两性异形时，对包括当前产卵群生物量在内的与管理有关的数量的估计有很大的偏差。我们还发现，（i）渔获量和丰度之间关系的不确定性比渔获量的不确定性对估计性能的影响更大，（ii）评估结果对自然死亡率和种群补充陡度的假设值敏感，和㈢目前产卵群生物量与开发前平衡时的生物量之比似乎是所考虑的数量中最稳健的。我们的结论是，评估方法的蓝马林在太平洋需要考虑到季节性迁徙和性别结构，以改善股票评估。
Blue marlin, widely distributed throughout the Pacific Ocean, are sexually dimorphic, have certain preferred habitats, and migrate seasonally. These characteristics have been ignored in previous stock assessment models. A population dynamics model that includes spatial structure, and sex and age structure was therefore constructed and fitted to fisheries data for blue marlin, along with information on the relative density of the population over space derived from a habitat preference model that uses the oceanographic and biological variables sea-surface temperature, mixed layer depth, sea-surface height anomaly, and chlorophyll-a concentration. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to examine the estimation performance of the stock assessment method. Estimates of management-related quantities including current spawning stock biomass are substantially biased when the assessment method ignores seasonal movement and sexual dimorphism. We also found that (i) uncertainty about the relationship between catch rate and abundance influences estimation performance to a larger extent than uncertainty in catches, (ii) the outcomes of the assessment are sensitive to the values assumed for natural mortality and stock-recruitment steepness, and (iii) the ratio of current spawning stock biomass to that at pre-exploitation equilibrium appears to be the most robust among the quantities considered. We conclude that assessment methods for blue marlin in the Pacific Ocean need to take account of seasonal migration and sex structure to improve stock assessments.