I Knew it All Along! Evaluating Time-of-Decision Measures in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Campaign
I Knew it All Along! Evaluating Time-of-Decision Measures in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Campaign
复制标题
我一直都知道！
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jeffrey A. Gottfried
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lauren Kogen;Jeffrey A. Gottfried
本文评估了两种最常见的衡量选民决策时间的方法——回忆法和小组法——并询问这两种方法是否彼此一致。使用 2008 年美国总统选举期间收集的全国安纳伯格选举调查数据，研究结果表明，这两种方法衡量的是不同的概念，因此不能互换使用。此外，两种方法之间的差异表明，应调整早期、竞选和后期决策的公认模型，以考虑到第四组选民，他们永远不会改变投票意图，但直到竞选后期才真正承诺该意图。未承诺的早期决策者的概念被用来描述这个群体，这是通过结合这两种方法创建的。
This paper evaluates the two most common methods of measuring voter time-of-decision—the recall method and the panel method—and asks whether the two methods are consistent with each other. Using data from the National Annenberg Election Survey collected during the 2008 U.S. presidential election, the findings suggest that these two methods measure different concepts, and thus cannot be used interchangeably. Furthermore, discrepancies between the two methods suggest that the accepted model of early, campaign, and late decision-making should be adjusted to account for a fourth group of voters that never changes their vote intention, but does not truly commit to that intention until later in the campaign. The concept of uncommitted early deciders is offered to describe this group, created by combining the two methods.