Intercontinental Impacts of Ozone Pollution on Human Mortality
Intercontinental Impacts of Ozone Pollution on Human Mortality
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DOI：
10.1021/es900518z
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发表时间：
2009-09-01
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Zang, Guang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anenberg, Susan Casper;West, J. Jason;Zang, Guang
臭氧暴露会对健康产生负面影响，包括过早死亡。观测和建模研究表明，一个大陆的排放影响到其他大陆的臭氧空气质量。我们估计通过在北美（NA），东亚（EA），南亚（SA）和欧洲（EU）将人为氮氧化物，非甲烷挥发性有机化合物和一氧化碳排放量减少20%，从而避免了地表臭氧减少的过早死亡。我们使用估计臭氧对这些排放变化的响应，从几个大气化学传输模型结合健康影响函数。在北美、欧洲、南非和欧盟，外国减排分别占所有地区通过减少前体排放而避免的死亡率的约30%、30%、20%和> 50%。减少北美和欧盟的排放避免了源区外比源区内更多的死亡，部分原因是外国地区的人口较多。将全球甲烷丰度降低20%，可降低SA的死亡率，其次是EU，EA和NA。对于一些源受体对，有更大的不确定性，我们估计避免死亡与模拟臭氧排放变化的反应比健康影响函数参数。
Ozone exposure is associated with negative health impacts, including premature mortality. Observations and modeling studies demonstrate that emissions from one continent influence ozone air quality over other continents. We estimate the premature mortalities avoided from surface ozone decreases obtained via combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compound, and carbon monoxide emissions in North America (NA), East Asia (EA), South Asia (SA), and Europe (EU). We use estimates of ozone responses to these emission changes from several atmospheric chemical transport models combined with a health impact function. Foreign emission reductions contribute approximately 30%, 30%, 20%, and > 50% of the mortalities avoided by reducing precursor emissions in all regions together in NA, EA, SA, and EU, respectively. Reducing emissions in NA and EU avoids more mortalities outside the source region than within, owing in part to larger populations in foreign regions. Lowering the global methane abundance by 20% reduces mortality most in SA,followed by EU, EA, and NA. For some source-receptor pairs, there is greater uncertainty in our estimated avoided mortalities associated with the modeled ozone responses to emission changes than with the health impact function parameters.