Fine-grain modeling of species' response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia
Fine-grain modeling of species' response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tree.2014.04.006
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
16.8
通讯作者：
McCullough, Ian M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hannah, Lee;Flint, Lorraine;McCullough, Ian M.
小气候在过去的物种分布范围变化中发挥了关键作用，这表明它们在生物对未来变化的反应中可能很重要。需要术语来讨论这些未来的影响。我们建议，人口占据小气候被称为顽固分子，垫脚石和microrefugia。一个坚持者是指在一个小气候中，在不断恶化的气候条件下，坚持一段有限的时间的种群。踏脚石以一种促进物种范围转移的方式连续占据小气候。微避难所指的是在一段不利的气候时期内坚持在小气候中的种群。由于气候预测表明，恢复到目前的气候是极不可能的，保护战略需要建立在坚持和垫脚石，而不是低概率的微避难所。
Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a microclimate for a limited period of time under deteriorating climatic conditions. Stepping stones successively occupy microclimates in a way that facilitates species' range shifts. Microrefugia refer to populations that persist in microclimates through a period of unfavorable climate. Because climate projections show that return to present climate is highly unlikely, conservation strategies need to be built around holdouts and stepping stones, rather than low-probability microrefugia.